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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)

Malmo — Vaxjo

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Model prediction for 14 November

Malmo51%
Draw in regulation21%
Vaxjo28%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Malmo are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Malmo are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Malmo — No. 4, 25 pts; Vaxjo — No. 12, 15 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
  • Malmo: 3 wins in a row; Vaxjo: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Malmo 2 wins, Vaxjo 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Malmo — Vaxjo2.9–2.2
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Vaxjo to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Malmo
  • Malmo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Malmo

  • 31.10HV 713:2 OT
  • 29.10away · Rogle3:0
  • 27.10Linkoping8:2
  • 24.10Timra1:2
  • 22.10away · IF Bjorkloven4:2

Vaxjo

  • 31.10Farjestad1:5
  • 29.10away · Timra0:3
  • 24.10away · Farjestad1:4
  • 22.10Lulea2:1
  • 17.10away · Brynas3:2

Head to head

  • 22.09.2026Vaxjo — Malmo4:3 OT
  • 21.02.2026Vaxjo — Malmo4:3
  • 26.12.2025Vaxjo — Malmo2:5
  • 25.11.2025Malmo — Vaxjo2:1 OT
  • 25.10.2025Malmo — Vaxjo2:4

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda16920555–39+1631
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsMalmo14623345–33+1225
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle15621639–36+323
11Brynas14411840–39+115
12Vaxjo14411833–47-1415
13, Relegation play-offLinkoping14311927–51-2412

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • HV 71Timrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
  • RogleFrolundapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • IF BjorklovenBrynaspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.1
  • LuleaFarjestadpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • OrebroDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • SkellefteaLinkopingpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →