NHL · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Pittsburgh Penguins — Ottawa Senators
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Pittsburgh Penguins 52%, Ottawa Senators 48% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.7 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 56%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.8.
Facts
- League table: Pittsburgh Penguins — No. 27, 12 pts; Ottawa Senators — No. 12, 19 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Pittsburgh Penguins 2 wins, Ottawa Senators 3.
- Days of rest before the match: Pittsburgh Penguins 11, Ottawa Senators 13.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pittsburgh Penguins — Ottawa Senators | 2.9–2.8 | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Ottawa Senators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 56% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 44% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Pittsburgh Penguins
- Pittsburgh Penguins goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 04.11Vegas Golden Knights2:3
- 01.11away · Montreal Canadiens4:5
- 30.10Utah Mammoth3:4 OT
- 25.10Nashville Predators3:2 OT
- 23.10Florida Panthers4:0
- 02.11away · Anaheim Ducks3:6
- 31.10away · San Jose Sharks5:1
- 30.10away · Los Angeles Kings5:6 OT
- 28.10away · Vegas Golden Knights1:4
- 25.10New York Rangers7:4
Head to head
- 27.03.2026Ottawa Senators — Pittsburgh Penguins3:4 SO
- 03.02.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Ottawa Senators2:3
- 19.12.2025Ottawa Senators — Pittsburgh Penguins4:0
- 31.03.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Ottawa Senators1:0 OT
- 12.01.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Ottawa Senators0:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Dallas Stars | 15 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Ottawa Senators | 16 | 9 | +1 | 19 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 17 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
| 26 | Winnipeg Jets | 16 | 5 | -19 | 13 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 15 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 28 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 13 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
NHL on the same day
- Boston BruinsMinnesota Wildpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Columbus Blue JacketsPhiladelphia Flyerspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:14.9
- Montreal CanadiensColorado Avalanchepreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- St. Louis BluesFlorida Pantherspreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.3
- Tampa Bay LightningDetroit Red Wingspreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.5
- Toronto Maple LeafsEdmonton Oilerspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- Washington CapitalsNew Jersey Devilspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
- Dallas StarsBuffalo Sabrespreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →