NHL · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Toronto Maple Leafs — Edmonton Oilers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Edmonton Oilers are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 62%.
Why
- Edmonton Oilers are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.9.
Facts
- League table: Toronto Maple Leafs — No. 13, 18 pts; Edmonton Oilers — No. 2, 25 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Toronto Maple Leafs 4 wins, Edmonton Oilers 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — Edmonton Oilers | 2.9–3.1 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Edmonton Oilers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 62% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 38% |
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Form
- 04.11Utah Mammoth2:3
- 01.11away · Vancouver Canucks4:2
- 29.10away · Seattle Kraken4:5
- 27.10away · Calgary Flames2:5
- 25.10away · Edmonton Oilers7:2
- 04.11away · New Jersey Devils3:4 SO
- 02.11away · New York Rangers4:1
- 31.10away · New York Islanders4:0
- 29.10Calgary Flames4:0
- 27.10Detroit Red Wings3:4 SO
Head to head
- 25.10.2026Edmonton Oilers — Toronto Maple Leafs2:7
- 04.02.2026Edmonton Oilers — Toronto Maple Leafs2:5
- 14.12.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Edmonton Oilers3:6
- 02.02.2025Edmonton Oilers — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4
- 17.11.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — Edmonton Oilers4:3 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Carolina Hurricanes | 17 | 12 | +24 | 26 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Edmonton Oilers | 16 | 11 | +19 | 25 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 17 | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Ottawa Senators | 16 | 9 | +1 | 19 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 17 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
| 14 | Florida Panthers | 15 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
NHL on the same day
- Boston BruinsMinnesota Wildpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Columbus Blue JacketsPhiladelphia Flyerspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:14.9
- Montreal CanadiensColorado Avalanchepreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- Pittsburgh PenguinsOttawa Senatorspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- St. Louis BluesFlorida Pantherspreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.3
- Tampa Bay LightningDetroit Red Wingspreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.5
- Washington CapitalsNew Jersey Devilspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
- Dallas StarsBuffalo Sabrespreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →