NHL · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.5.
Facts
- League table: Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 8, 20 pts; Detroit Red Wings — No. 17, 17 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 wins, Detroit Red Wings 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings | 3.0–2.5 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 58% | |
| Detroit Red Wings to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 42% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 54% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 46% |
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Form
- 04.11Detroit Red Wings4:2
- 31.10away · Nashville Predators4:5 SO
- 30.10Winnipeg Jets6:4
- 25.10away · Utah Mammoth4:5 OT
- 24.10away · Colorado Avalanche3:6
- 04.11away · Tampa Bay Lightning2:4
- 03.11away · Florida Panthers5:3
- 31.10St. Louis Blues4:5
- 30.10Chicago Blackhawks4:1
- 27.10away · Edmonton Oilers4:3 SO
Head to head
- 04.11.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings4:2
- 14.04.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings4:3 OT
- 13.03.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Detroit Red Wings4:1
- 28.11.2025Detroit Red Wings — Tampa Bay Lightning3:6
- 18.10.2025Detroit Red Wings — Tampa Bay Lightning2:1 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New Jersey Devils | 15 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 14 | 9 | +7 | 20 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 16 | 10 | +3 | 20 |
| 16, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Seattle Kraken | 14 | 8 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 | Detroit Red Wings | 16 | 7 | -2 | 17 |
| 18, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Nashville Predators | 15 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
NHL on the same day
- Boston BruinsMinnesota Wildpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Columbus Blue JacketsPhiladelphia Flyerspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:14.9
- Montreal CanadiensColorado Avalanchepreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- Pittsburgh PenguinsOttawa Senatorspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- St. Louis BluesFlorida Pantherspreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.3
- Toronto Maple LeafsEdmonton Oilerspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- Washington CapitalsNew Jersey Devilspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
- Dallas StarsBuffalo Sabrespreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →