NHL · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Tampa Bay Lightning — Edmonton Oilers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.7.
Facts
- League table: Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 8, 20 pts; Edmonton Oilers — No. 2, 25 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 wins, Edmonton Oilers 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Edmonton Oilers | 3.0–2.7 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Edmonton Oilers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 57% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 43% |
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Form
- 04.11Detroit Red Wings4:2
- 31.10away · Nashville Predators4:5 SO
- 30.10Winnipeg Jets6:4
- 25.10away · Utah Mammoth4:5 OT
- 24.10away · Colorado Avalanche3:6
- 04.11away · New Jersey Devils3:4 SO
- 02.11away · New York Rangers4:1
- 31.10away · New York Islanders4:0
- 29.10Calgary Flames4:0
- 27.10Detroit Red Wings3:4 SO
Head to head
- 22.03.2026Edmonton Oilers — Tampa Bay Lightning2:5
- 21.11.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Edmonton Oilers2:1 OT
- 26.02.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Edmonton Oilers4:1
- 11.12.2024Edmonton Oilers — Tampa Bay Lightning2:1
- 15.12.2023Edmonton Oilers — Tampa Bay Lightning4:7
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Carolina Hurricanes | 17 | 12 | +24 | 26 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Edmonton Oilers | 16 | 11 | +19 | 25 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 17 | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New Jersey Devils | 15 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 14 | 9 | +7 | 20 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 16 | 10 | +3 | 20 |
NHL on the same day
- Carolina HurricanesMontreal Canadienspreliminary75251The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 5:26.0
- Ottawa SenatorsPhiladelphia Flyerspreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.0
- Pittsburgh PenguinsSt. Louis Bluespreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- Toronto Maple LeafsLos Angeles Kingspreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- Washington CapitalsBuffalo Sabrespreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.9
- Winnipeg JetsNew York Islanderspreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.2
- Calgary FlamesMinnesota Wildpreliminary37632The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Chicago BlackhawksColumbus Blue Jacketspreliminary39612The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →