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Tennis: ATP, Lyon, hard · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)

Musetti L. — Fritz T.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Missed
Musetti L.40%
Fritz T.60%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Fritz T. to win (60%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

Fritz T. are slightly stronger: 60% against 40%.

Over 22.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Musetti L. 1743, Fritz T. 1795.

Facts

  • Musetti L.: 4 wins in a row; Fritz T.: 3 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Games over 22.551%
Games under 22.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Musetti L. games
  • Fritz T. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Musetti L.

  • 24.10Cobolli F.2:1
  • 23.10van Assche L.2:1
  • 21.10Kouame M.2:0
  • 19.10Arnaldi M.2:0
  • 09.10Zhou Y.1:2

Fritz T.

  • 24.10Paul T.2:0
  • 23.10Altmaier D.2:0
  • 22.10Herbert P.2:0
  • 12.10Tsitsipas S.1:2
  • 10.10Arnaldi M.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Musetti L.Tiafoe F.28 October · ATP · Vienna
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • Fritz T.Hijikata R.28 October · ATP · Basel
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.19.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:222.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →