EFL Championship, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers — Stoke City
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In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Bolton Wanderers to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Bolton Wanderers are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bolton Wanderers are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Stoke City: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers — Stoke City What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Bolton Wanderers not to lose | 72% | |
| Stoke City not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bolton Wanderers
- Bolton Wanderers goals
- Stoke City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Norwich City4:3
- 12.09Cardiff City1:0
- 08.09West Ham United2:3
- 05.09away · Millwall0:4
- 01.09away · Sheffield United2:3
- 19.09Sheffield United2:1
- 12.09away · Watford2:1
- 08.09away · Cardiff City1:1
- 05.09Charlton Athletic4:0
- 01.09Norwich City1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 9 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
Next matches
- Wolverhampton WanderersBolton Wanderers13 October · Championship6322151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- Stoke CityMiddlesbrough13 October · Championship2128512The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
Championship on the same day
- 353134XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
- 4329281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 4627271The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
- 3129402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.8
- 4230291The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →