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UEFA Nations League, round 2, League B, group 4 · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Arena Naţională

Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina

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Model prediction and result

2:4Missed
Romania47%
Draw28%
Bosnia and Herzegovina25%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Romania to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.

Romania are clear favourites: 47% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Romania 1629, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1616 — the teams are almost level on rating.
  • Romania: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Facts

  • Last 4 meetings: Romania 1 win, Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina What is xG?1.5–1.0
Romania not to lose75%
Bosnia and Herzegovina not to lose53%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Romania
  • Romania goals
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Romania

  • 25.09away · Sweden1:2
  • 06.06Wales2:1
  • 02.06away · Georgia1:1
  • 31.03away · Slovakia0:2
  • 26.03away · Turkiye0:1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • 25.09away · Poland0:0
  • 02.07away · USA0:2
  • 24.06Qatar3:1
  • 18.06away · Switzerland1:4
  • 12.06away · Canada1:1

Head to head

  • 15.11.2025Bosnia and Herzegovina — Romania3:1
  • 21.03.2025Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina0:1
  • 26.09.2022Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina4:1
  • 07.06.2022Bosnia and Herzegovina — Romania1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • PolandRomania2 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaSweden2 October · UEFA Nations League
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • GeorgiaUkraine
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • ArmeniaMontenegro
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
  • LatviaCyprus
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
  • BelgiumFrance
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
  • TurkiyeItaly
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
  • Northern IrelandHungary
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
  • SwedenPoland
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →