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KHL · Friday, 2 October, MSK · G-Drive Arena

Avangard Omsk — Lada

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Model prediction and result

4:1Came true
Avangard Omsk68%
Draw in regulation17%
Lada15%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Avangard Omsk to win (80% incl. overtime), came true.

Avangard Omsk are clear favourites: 80% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Avangard Omsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Avangard Omsk — Lada3.5–1.8
Avangard Omsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)80%
Lada to win (incl. OT and shootout)20%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Avangard Omsk
  • Avangard Omsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Avangard Omsk

  • 28.09Magnitogorsk1:5
  • 24.09away · Spartak Moscow2:1 OT
  • 22.09away · Nizhny Novgorod1:5
  • 20.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk1:2
  • 18.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2

Lada

  • 30.09away · Yekaterinburg1:3
  • 28.09away · Dinamo Minsk4:5
  • 25.09CSKA Moscow0:5
  • 23.09away · Niznekamsk3:7
  • 21.09away · Bars Kazan2:3 OT

Head to head

  • 28.12.2025Avangard Omsk — Lada4:3 SO
  • 18.11.2025Lada — Avangard Omsk0:3
  • 06.02.2025Lada — Avangard Omsk1:2
  • 28.12.2024Avangard Omsk — Lada7:6
  • 21.12.2024Lada — Avangard Omsk4:3

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
18Novosibirsk1553733–45-1213
19Avangard Omsk1360722–34-1212
20Tractor Chelyabinsk1350824–33-910
21Sochi14301119–49-306
22Lada15141024–59-356

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • LadaShanghai5 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • YekaterinburgAvangard Omsk6 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.6

KHL on the same day

  • Salavat UfaNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • Bars KazanTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • NiznekamskBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.4.9
  • Spartak MoscowMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →