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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 12 October, MSK

Bars — Zvezda Moscow

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Model prediction and result

5:2Came true
Bars40%
Draw in regulation23%
Zvezda Moscow37%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:2: the model's most likely outcome, Bars to win (51% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Bars 51%, Zvezda Moscow 49% including overtime.

4.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bars — Zvezda Moscow2.3–2.2
Bars to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Zvezda Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)33%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)67%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Bars
  • Bars goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Bars

  • 10.10Khimik2:1
  • 06.10away · Gornyak3:2
  • 04.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk4:3
  • 02.10away · Magnitka Magnitogorsk2:4
  • 30.09away · Orsk0:4

Zvezda Moscow

  • 10.10away · Almetyevsk5:3
  • 08.10away · CSK VVS3:2
  • 02.10Dinamo St. Petersburg2:4
  • 30.09SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:3
  • 24.09Gornyak2:3

Head to head

  • 01.03.2026Zvezda Moscow — Bars4:3 OT
  • 15.09.2025Bars — Zvezda Moscow1:5
  • 03.03.2025Bars — Zvezda Moscow3:1
  • 15.09.2024Zvezda Moscow — Bars7:3
  • 26.12.2023Zvezda Moscow — Bars3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
13, PlayoffsGornyak1071229–18+1115
14, PlayoffsBars1471635–44-915
15, PlayoffsKristall Saratov1271431–41-1015
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • BarsDinamo St. Petersburg14 October · VHL
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
  • Zvezda MoscowRyazan20 October · VHL · preliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3

VHL on the same day

  • HC NorilskPerm
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • CSK VVSSKA-VMF St. Petersburg
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • AlmetyevskDinamo St. Petersburg
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
  • AKMMagnitka Magnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • KalugaOrsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 125%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
  • RyazanChelmet Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 8:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →