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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Winning Group Arena

Kometa Brno — Plzen

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Model prediction and result

1:2 OTCame true
Kometa Brno38%
Draw in regulation23%
Plzen38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Plzen to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Kometa Brno 50%, Plzen 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kometa Brno — Plzen2.2–2.2
Kometa Brno to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Plzen to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)33%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)67%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kometa Brno
  • Kometa Brno goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kometa Brno

  • 08.10away · Sparta Prague4:3 OT
  • 05.10away · Ceske Budejovice1:5
  • 02.10Mlada Boleslav3:2 SO
  • 27.09Pardubice3:5
  • 25.09away · Olomouc4:2

Plzen

  • 08.10Ceske Budejovice4:1
  • 04.10away · Karlovy Vary1:4
  • 02.10away · Pardubice2:4
  • 29.09away · Mlada Boleslav4:1
  • 27.09Mountfield HK2:1

Head to head

  • 27.01.2026Plzen — Kometa Brno4:0
  • 23.12.2025Kometa Brno — Plzen3:2 OT
  • 31.10.2025Plzen — Kometa Brno4:3 SO
  • 23.09.2025Kometa Brno — Plzen4:2
  • 14.02.2025Kometa Brno — Plzen4:3 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMlada Boleslav10211623–36-139

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • PlzenSparta Prague16 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • KladnoKometa Brno16 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Sparta PragueVitkovice
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • Mlada BoleslavLitvinov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Ceske BudejoviceLiberec
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Karlovy VaryKladno
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • Mountfield HKOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • PardubiceTrinec
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 4:2.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →