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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Budvar Arena

Ceske Budejovice — Liberec

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Model prediction and result

4:3Missed
Ceske Budejovice36%
Draw in regulation22%
Liberec42%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Liberec to win (54% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.

Liberec are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ceske Budejovice — Liberec2.5–2.6
Ceske Budejovice to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Liberec to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ceske Budejovice
  • Ceske Budejovice goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Ceske Budejovice

  • 08.10away · Plzen1:4
  • 05.10Kometa Brno5:1
  • 01.10away · Sparta Prague2:4
  • 29.09away · Pardubice2:5
  • 27.09Litvinov5:4

Liberec

  • 09.10Karlovy Vary5:0
  • 04.10away · Mlada Boleslav5:3
  • 02.10Olomouc2:0
  • 29.09away · Litvinov4:5 SO
  • 27.09Trinec1:3

Head to head

  • 06.03.2026Ceske Budejovice — Liberec4:3 SO
  • 13.01.2026Liberec — Ceske Budejovice6:3
  • 25.11.2025Liberec — Ceske Budejovice5:2
  • 10.10.2025Ceske Budejovice — Liberec4:2
  • 13.03.2025Ceske Budejovice — Liberec3:2 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKladno10322329–32-315
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSparta Prague10402431–28+314
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • VitkoviceCeske Budejovice16 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
  • Kometa BrnoLiberec18 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.0

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Sparta PragueVitkovice
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • Mlada BoleslavLitvinov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Karlovy VaryKladno
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • Kometa BrnoPlzen
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • Mountfield HKOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • PardubiceTrinec
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 4:2.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →