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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Winter stadium Ivana Hlinky

Litvinov — Olomouc

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Litvinov46%
Draw in regulation22%
Olomouc32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Litvinov to win (58% incl. overtime), came true.

Litvinov are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

  • Litvinov are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Litvinov — Olomouc2.7–2.3
Litvinov to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Olomouc to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Litvinov
  • Litvinov goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Litvinov

  • 04.10Kladno2:3 OT
  • 02.10away · Trinec2:3
  • 29.09Liberec5:4 SO
  • 27.09away · Ceske Budejovice4:5
  • 25.09Sparta Prague1:4

Olomouc

  • 04.10Trinec0:9
  • 02.10away · Liberec0:2
  • 29.09Vitkovice3:4
  • 27.09away · Kladno4:1
  • 25.09Kometa Brno2:4

Head to head

  • 25.01.2026Litvinov — Olomouc3:5
  • 21.12.2025Olomouc — Litvinov4:3 OT
  • 28.10.2025Litvinov — Olomouc1:0
  • 21.10.2025Olomouc — Litvinov3:2
  • 14.02.2025Litvinov — Olomouc0:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311
13Vitkovice9201621–32-117
14, Relegation play-offOlomouc10110818–36-185

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Mlada BoleslavLitvinov11 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Mountfield HKOlomouc11 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • TrinecMountfield HK
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
  • VitkovicePardubice
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
  • KladnoMlada Boleslav
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • LiberecKarlovy Vary
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →