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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · WERK Arena

Trinec — Mountfield HK

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Model prediction and result

5:2Came true
Trinec51%
Draw in regulation22%
Mountfield HK28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:2: the model's most likely outcome, Trinec to win (63% incl. overtime), came true.

Trinec are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Trinec are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Trinec — Mountfield HK2.8–2.1
Trinec to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Mountfield HK to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Trinec
  • Trinec goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Trinec

  • 04.10away · Olomouc9:0
  • 02.10Litvinov3:2
  • 29.09Kladno6:4
  • 27.09away · Liberec3:1
  • 25.09Vitkovice8:2

Mountfield HK

  • 04.10Vitkovice3:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kladno4:3 SO
  • 29.09Sparta Prague4:3
  • 27.09away · Plzen1:2
  • 24.09Liberec5:2

Head to head

  • 27.03.2026Mountfield HK — Trinec2:3 OT
  • 25.03.2026Trinec — Mountfield HK4:2
  • 24.03.2026Trinec — Mountfield HK2:3
  • 21.03.2026Mountfield HK — Trinec2:3 OT
  • 20.03.2026Mountfield HK — Trinec2:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsTrinec10901049–23+2628
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Mountfield HKOlomouc11 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • PardubiceTrinec11 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 4:2.5.1

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • LitvinovOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:2.4.9
  • VitkovicePardubice
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
  • KladnoMlada Boleslav
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • LiberecKarlovy Vary
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →