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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Wemasto Areena

Pelicans — Karpat

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Model prediction and result

2:3 OTMissed
Pelicans42%
Draw in regulation23%
Karpat35%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Pelicans to win (54% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.

Pelicans are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pelicans — Karpat2.5–2.3
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)39%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Pelicans
  • Pelicans goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Pelicans

  • 03.10away · KooKoo6:3
  • 26.09IFK Helsinki2:1
  • 22.09away · Jokerit0:3
  • 19.09JYP1:3
  • 18.09away · Jukurit1:3

Karpat

  • 07.10Kiekko-Espoo8:7 OT
  • 03.10away · Hameenlinna1:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:1
  • 30.09SaiPa4:1
  • 26.09away · Vaasan Sport2:1

Head to head

  • 17.02.2026Pelicans — Karpat0:5
  • 28.01.2026Karpat — Pelicans2:3 OT
  • 29.11.2025Pelicans — Karpat5:1
  • 01.10.2025Karpat — Pelicans2:3 OT
  • 12.02.2025Karpat — Pelicans4:7

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • JukuritKarpat10 October · Liiga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 3:2.5.0
  • PelicansVaasan Sport16 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.3

Liiga on the same day

  • Kiekko-EspooJYP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
  • AssatHameenlinna
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.5
  • IlvesLukko
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • KooKooJukurit
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.3
  • KalPaTappara
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →