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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Espoo Metro Areena

Kiekko-Espoo — JYP

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Model prediction and result

6:1Came true
Kiekko-Espoo45%
Draw in regulation22%
JYP33%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:1: the model's most likely outcome, Kiekko-Espoo to win (57% incl. overtime), came true.

Kiekko-Espoo are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 48%.

Why

  • Kiekko-Espoo are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.5.
  • JYP: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kiekko-Espoo — JYP2.8–2.5
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
JYP to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)48%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kiekko-Espoo
  • Kiekko-Espoo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 07.10away · Karpat7:8 OT
  • 03.10away · Ilves4:6
  • 02.10Karpat1:3
  • 30.09TPS Turku4:2
  • 26.09Jokerit4:1

JYP

  • 08.10away · SaiPa2:1
  • 03.10away · TPS Turku1:4
  • 02.10away · Hameenlinna1:2
  • 25.09away · IFK Helsinki4:3
  • 19.09away · Pelicans3:1

Head to head

  • 04.03.2026Kiekko-Espoo — JYP2:3 OT
  • 25.02.2026JYP — Kiekko-Espoo2:0
  • 25.10.2025JYP — Kiekko-Espoo6:3
  • 19.09.2025Kiekko-Espoo — JYP7:3
  • 08.03.2025JYP — Kiekko-Espoo3:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • JYPLukko14 October · Liiga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
  • TPS TurkuKiekko-Espoo16 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatHameenlinna
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.5
  • IlvesLukko
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • KooKooJukurit
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.3
  • PelicansKarpat
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • KalPaTappara
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →