Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Tampere Deck Arena
Ilves — Lukko
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1:5Missed
In short
Final score 1:5: the model's most likely outcome, Ilves to win (59% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.
Ilves are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.
Why
- Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ilves — Lukko | 2.7–2.3 | |
| Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 59% | |
| Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 41% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 43% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ilves
- Ilves goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
Head to head
- 01.09.2026Lukko — Ilves0:2
- 14.03.2026Lukko — Ilves4:1
- 17.02.2026Ilves — Lukko3:2
- 04.10.2025Lukko — Ilves1:0
- 20.09.2025Ilves — Lukko6:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ilves | 12 | 8 | +12 | 26 |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Jukurit | 14 | 6 | +7 | 24 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | SaiPa | 11 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lukko | 11 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Tappara | 11 | 5 | +8 | 19 |
Next matches
- JokeritIlves10 October · Liiga32682The most likely outcome came true: 221%0:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.4.9
- JYPLukko14 October · Liiga49512The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
Liiga on the same day
- 57431The most likely outcome came true: 122%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
- 62381The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3SOFinal score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.5
- 71291The most likely outcome came true: 120%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.3
- 54461The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →