Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 16 October, MSK
Tappara — Lukko
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 October
In short
Tappara are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.
Why
- Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tappara — Lukko | 2.8–2.4 | |
| Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 59% | |
| Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 41% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 47% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Tappara
- Tappara goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
Head to head
- 24.09.2026Lukko — Tappara3:2
- 13.03.2026Tappara — Lukko6:2
- 14.02.2026Lukko — Tappara1:4
- 30.09.2025Tappara — Lukko4:0
- 10.09.2025Lukko — Tappara1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | SaiPa | 11 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lukko | 11 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Tappara | 11 | 5 | +8 | 19 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
Liiga on the same day
- 39612The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- 40602The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
- 67331The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.3
- 51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
- 58421The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →