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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 16 October, MSK

TPS Turku — Kiekko-Espoo

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Model prediction for 16 October

TPS Turku40%
Draw in regulation23%
Kiekko-Espoo38%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Close to a coin flip: TPS Turku 51%, Kiekko-Espoo 49% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: TPS Turku — Kiekko-Espoo2.4–2.4
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap TPS Turku
  • TPS Turku goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

TPS Turku

  • 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
  • 03.10JYP4:1
  • 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
  • 27.09away · Ilves2:3
  • 25.09away · Jokerit2:1

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 09.10JYP6:1
  • 07.10away · Karpat7:8 OT
  • 03.10away · Ilves4:6
  • 02.10Karpat1:3
  • 30.09TPS Turku4:2

Head to head

  • 30.09.2026Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku4:2
  • 27.12.2025Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku8:1
  • 26.12.2025TPS Turku — Kiekko-Espoo0:1
  • 03.12.2025TPS Turku — Kiekko-Espoo5:0
  • 12.11.2025Kiekko-Espoo — TPS Turku2:4

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaIlves
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • JokeritAssat
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • PelicansVaasan Sport
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.3
  • TapparaLukko
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • JYPKarpat
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →