NHL · Friday, 16 October, MSK
Toronto Maple Leafs — Buffalo Sabres
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 October
In short
Buffalo Sabres are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 62%.
Why
- Buffalo Sabres are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — Buffalo Sabres | 2.9–3.2 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 62% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Colorado Avalanche6:3
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
- 12.10Florida Panthers5:3
- 11.10Utah Mammoth1:4
- 09.10Dallas Stars0:4
- 07.10Minnesota Wild3:2 OT
- 04.10Chicago Blackhawks4:3
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Buffalo Sabres — Toronto Maple Leafs3:2 SO
- 28.01.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — Buffalo Sabres4:7
- 26.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Buffalo Sabres4:3 OT
- 25.10.2025Buffalo Sabres — Toronto Maple Leafs5:3
- 16.04.2025Buffalo Sabres — Toronto Maple Leafs0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 19 | Florida Panthers | 6 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 20 | Buffalo Sabres | 6 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 21 | Dallas Stars | 5 | 2 | +3 | 5 |
NHL on the same day
- 65351The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.7
- 48522The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.2
- 59411The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.2
- 63371The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:15.5
- 53471The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:14.9
- 41592The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.2
- 58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.3
- 59411The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →