UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
AFC Bournemouth — Milan
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
AFC Bournemouth are clear favourites: 49% against 26% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AFC Bournemouth are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AFC Bournemouth — No. 10, 3 pts; Milan — No. 29, 0 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth — Milan What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 74% | |
| Milan not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- Milan goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Chelsea1:5
- 20.09Liverpool0:1
- 17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
- 12.09Brentford2:2
- 08.09Lincoln City4:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Milan | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6520141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary7417101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4825261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →