J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Avispa Fukuoka — V-Varen Nagasaki
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Avispa Fukuoka are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Avispa Fukuoka higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Avispa Fukuoka — No. 20, 7 pts; V-Varen Nagasaki — No. 15, 12 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Avispa Fukuoka: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: Avispa Fukuoka 1 win, V-Varen Nagasaki 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka — V-Varen Nagasaki What is xG? | 1.3–1.1 | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 72% | |
| V-Varen Nagasaki not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Avispa Fukuoka | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.42 | 1.52 |
| Shots | 10.9 | 13.1 |
| On target | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 43 | 44 |
Form
- 01.11away · JEF United Chiba0:3
- 24.10away · Tokyo Verdy1:3
- 21.10Gamba Osaka1:2
- 18.10away · Machida Zelvia0:3
- 10.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 01.11Tokyo Verdy1:2
- 25.10away · Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 21.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima4:0
- 17.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 11.10away · JEF United Chiba1:1
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Avispa Fukuoka — V-Varen Nagasaki1:0
- 15.03.2026V-Varen Nagasaki — Avispa Fukuoka1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 13 | 3 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | -7 | 12 |
| 19, Relegation | Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | -13 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Avispa Fukuoka | 13 | 2 | -11 | 7 |
J1 League on the same day
- 4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- 4728251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 4130281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 5027231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 4427301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →