J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Yokohama F.Marinos — Fagiano Okayama FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Yokohama F.Marinos are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Yokohama F.Marinos are 188 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Yokohama F.Marinos — No. 8, 21 pts; Fagiano Okayama FC — No. 10, 16 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Yokohama F.Marinos: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Yokohama F.Marinos 0 wins, Fagiano Okayama FC 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Yokohama F.Marinos — Fagiano Okayama FC What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Yokohama F.Marinos not to lose | 72% | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Yokohama F.Marinos | Fagiano Okayama FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.34 | 1.02 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| Shots | 12.7 | 13.1 |
| On target | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 42 |
Form
- 01.11Kawasaki Frontale4:2
- 25.10away · Nagoya Grampus1:1
- 21.10Tokyo Verdy2:2
- 17.10away · JEF United Chiba0:0
- 10.10away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 31.10FC Tokyo0:4
- 25.10away · Kawasaki Frontale1:2
- 21.10Mito Hollyhock2:0
- 18.10Vissel Kobe0:3
- 10.10away · Avispa Fukuoka1:2
Head to head
- 21.06.2025Yokohama F.Marinos — Fagiano Okayama FC0:1
- 29.03.2025Fagiano Okayama FC — Yokohama F.Marinos1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 6 | +5 | 22 |
| 8 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 13 | 5 | +6 | 21 |
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 13 | 7 | -6 | 21 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 13 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 13 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
J1 League on the same day
- 4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- 4728251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- 5027231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 4427301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →