J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
FC Tokyo — Kashima Antlers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
FC Tokyo are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Tokyo are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- FC Tokyo are 93 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Tokyo — No. 1, 30 pts; Kashima Antlers — No. 6, 23 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- FC Tokyo: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Tokyo 0 wins, Kashima Antlers 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Tokyo — Kashima Antlers What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| FC Tokyo not to lose | 77% | |
| Kashima Antlers not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo goals
- Kashima Antlers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Tokyo | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 2.21 | 1.56 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.73 | 0.99 |
| Shots | 17.6 | 16.2 |
| On target | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 4.5 |
| Cards | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Possession, % | 57 | 58 |
Form
- 31.10away · Fagiano Okayama FC4:0
- 25.10Mito Hollyhock6:0
- 21.10Kashiwa Reysol0:0
- 17.10away · Tokyo Verdy4:0
- 10.10Urawa Red Diamonds3:0
- 31.10Cerezo Osaka4:1
- 24.10Kashiwa Reysol2:3
- 21.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC2:2
- 17.10V-Varen Nagasaki2:0
- 09.10Gamba Osaka2:0
Head to head
- 23.05.2026Kashima Antlers — FC Tokyo1:0
- 07.02.2026FC Tokyo — Kashima Antlers1:1
- 10.08.2025FC Tokyo — Kashima Antlers0:1
- 01.03.2025Kashima Antlers — FC Tokyo2:0
- 20.07.2024Kashima Antlers — FC Tokyo2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 13 | 9 | +23 | 30 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | +22 | 29 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 8 | +9 | 26 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 13 | 7 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 6 | +5 | 22 |
J1 League on the same day
- 4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- 4728251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 4130281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- 4427301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →