J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, 08:00 (UTC+3)

Nagoya Grampus — Kyoto Sanga FC

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Model prediction for 7 November

Nagoya Grampus47%

Draw28%

Kyoto Sanga FC25%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

In short

Nagoya Grampus are clear favourites: 47% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

By the strength ratings Nagoya Grampus are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Nagoya Grampus are 134 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Nagoya Grampus — No. 11, 14 pts; Kyoto Sanga FC — No. 14, 13 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Last 5 meetings: Nagoya Grampus 1 win, Kyoto Sanga FC 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus — Kyoto Sanga FC What is xG?		1.5–1.1
Nagoya Grampus not to lose		75%
Kyoto Sanga FC not to lose		53%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		54%
Both teams to score: no		46%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus goals
Kyoto Sanga FC goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Nagoya Grampus	Kyoto Sanga FC
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.7	1.6
xG per match	1.18	1.06
Opponents’ xG	1.49	1.43
Shots	12.9	10.7
On target	3.3	3.9
Corners	4.4	3.7
Cards	1.3	1.8
Possession, %	55	42

Averages per match: Nagoya Grampus — the last 10, Kyoto Sanga FC — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Nagoya Grampus

31.10away · Vissel Kobe1:3
25.10Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
21.10Cerezo Osaka1:1
17.10away · Kashiwa Reysol3:1
11.10away · Kawasaki Frontale2:1

Kyoto Sanga FC

31.10Shimizu S-Pulse2:0
24.10away · Gamba Osaka2:2
21.10Kashima Antlers2:2
17.10away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
10.10Machida Zelvia0:1

Head to head

10.05.2026Nagoya Grampus — Kyoto Sanga FC3:0
22.03.2026Kyoto Sanga FC — Nagoya Grampus1:1
10.08.2025Nagoya Grampus — Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
11.05.2025Kyoto Sanga FC — Nagoya Grampus1:1
07.08.2024Kyoto Sanga FC — Nagoya Grampus3:2

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10	Fagiano Okayama FC	13	5	1	7	15–21	-6	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	13	4	2	7	15–21	-6	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13–23	-10	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10–22	-12	14
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	13	3	4	6	17–23	-6	13
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	13	3	3	7	16–21	-5	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

J1 League on the same day

07:00
Shimizu S-PulseTokyo Verdy
433027
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
08:00
Yokohama F.MarinosFagiano Okayama FC
413028
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
09:00
Avispa FukuokaV-Varen Nagasaki
432928
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
09:00
FC TokyoKashima Antlers
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
10:00
Kashiwa ReysolKawasaki Frontale
442730
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →