J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, 07:00 (UTC+3)

Shimizu S-Pulse — Tokyo Verdy

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 7 November

Shimizu S-Pulse43%

Draw30%

Tokyo Verdy27%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Shimizu S-Pulse are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 30%.

The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Shimizu S-Pulse are 60 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Shimizu S-Pulse — No. 13, 14 pts; Tokyo Verdy — No. 17, 11 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Shimizu S-Pulse: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 2 meetings: Shimizu S-Pulse 2 wins, Tokyo Verdy 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse — Tokyo Verdy What is xG?		1.3–1.0
Shimizu S-Pulse not to lose		73%
Tokyo Verdy not to lose		57%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		41%
Total under 2.5		59%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse goals
Tokyo Verdy goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Shimizu S-Pulse	Tokyo Verdy
Goals scored per match	0.9	0.9
Goals conceded per match	2.0	1.8
xG per match	0.90	0.78
Opponents’ xG	1.79	1.68
Shots	9.6	9.2
On target	2.7	2.5
Corners	4.3	3.9
Cards	1.5	1.6
Possession, %	43	43

Averages per match: Shimizu S-Pulse — the last 10, Tokyo Verdy — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Shimizu S-Pulse

31.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC0:2
24.10away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:4
21.10Machida Zelvia0:5
17.10Gamba Osaka2:2
11.10away · Mito Hollyhock2:1

Tokyo Verdy

01.11away · V-Varen Nagasaki2:1
24.10Avispa Fukuoka3:1
21.10away · Yokohama F.Marinos2:2
17.10FC Tokyo0:4
11.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:2

Head to head

25.10.2025Shimizu S-Pulse — Tokyo Verdy1:0
16.02.2025Tokyo Verdy — Shimizu S-Pulse0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13–23	-10	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10–22	-12	14
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	13	3	4	6	17–23	-6	13
16	Gamba Osaka	13	2	6	5	14–21	-7	12
17	Tokyo Verdy	13	2	5	6	11–22	-11	11
18, Relegation	JEF United Chiba	13	2	4	7	15–24	-9	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

J1 League on the same day

08:00
Nagoya GrampusKyoto Sanga FC
472825
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
08:00
Yokohama F.MarinosFagiano Okayama FC
413028
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
09:00
Avispa FukuokaV-Varen Nagasaki
432928
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
09:00
FC TokyoKashima Antlers
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
10:00
Kashiwa ReysolKawasaki Frontale
442730
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →