Bundesliga, round 10 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Bayer Leverkusen — Paderborn
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 68% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
- Bayer Leverkusen are 275 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Bayer Leverkusen — No. 6, 13 pts; Paderborn — No. 14, 9 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 5 wins, Paderborn 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen — Paderborn What is xG? | 2.3–0.9 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 89% | |
| Paderborn not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- Paderborn goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Bayer Leverkusen | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 2.47 | 1.11 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.49 | 1.67 |
| Shots | 20.6 | 15.2 |
| On target | 7.5 | 4.3 |
| Corners | 7.9 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 50 |
Form
- 31.10VfB Stuttgart2:4
- 28.101. FC Nürnberg5:2
- 25.10away · Hoffenheim0:3
- 22.10away · OFI Crete2:0
- 18.10Freiburg2:1
- 31.10away · Borussia Mönchengladbach0:0
- 28.10VfB Stuttgart0:1
- 24.10Hamburger SV1:0
- 17.10away · Werder Bremen2:2
- 10.10VfB Stuttgart0:2
Head to head
- 29.10.2025Paderborn — Bayer Leverkusen2:4
- 06.12.2023Bayer Leverkusen — Paderborn3:1
- 19.01.2020Paderborn — Bayer Leverkusen1:4
- 29.10.2019Bayer Leverkusen — Paderborn1:0
- 17.08.2019Bayer Leverkusen — Paderborn3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Paderborn | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3 | -12 | 9 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmundpreliminary1622612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- Eintracht FrankfurtHoffenheimpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- ElversbergFreiburgpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Union BerlinRB Leipzigpreliminary1624602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Schalke 04VfB Stuttgartpreliminary2127522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →