Bundesliga, round 10 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Borussia Mönchengladbach — Borussia Dortmund
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 61% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Borussia Dortmund are 208 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Borussia Mönchengladbach — No. 18, 4 pts; Borussia Dortmund — No. 2, 18 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 win, Borussia Dortmund 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach — Borussia Dortmund What is xG? | 1.2–2.1 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach not to lose | 39% | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 84% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.72 | 1.77 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.84 | 1.42 |
| Shots | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| On target | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 6.9 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 55 |
Form
- 31.10Paderborn0:0
- 27.10Karlsruher SC2:0
- 23.10away · VfB Stuttgart3:2
- 18.10Hoffenheim1:2
- 11.10away · 1. FC Köln1:2
- 31.10away · Bayern München2:2
- 27.10Werder Bremen3:2
- 24.10Eintracht Frankfurt1:0
- 20.10away · Sabah FK2:1
- 17.10away · Union Berlin0:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Borussia Mönchengladbach — Borussia Dortmund1:0
- 19.12.2025Borussia Dortmund — Borussia Mönchengladbach2:0
- 20.04.2025Borussia Dortmund — Borussia Mönchengladbach3:2
- 07.12.2024Borussia Mönchengladbach — Borussia Dortmund1:1
- 13.04.2024Borussia Mönchengladbach — Borussia Dortmund1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Bayern München | 8 | 5 | +19 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 3, Champions League | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 17, Relegation | Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1 | -11 | 4 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- Bayer LeverkusenPaderbornpreliminary6820111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- Eintracht FrankfurtHoffenheimpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- ElversbergFreiburgpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Union BerlinRB Leipzigpreliminary1624602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Schalke 04VfB Stuttgartpreliminary2127522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →