Bundesliga, round 10 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Elversberg — Freiburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Freiburg are clear favourites: 48% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Freiburg are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Freiburg higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Elversberg — No. 7, 13 pts; Freiburg — No. 3, 16 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Elversberg — Freiburg What is xG? | 1.4–1.9 | |
| Elversberg not to lose | 52% | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Elversberg
- Elversberg goals
- Freiburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Elversberg | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.42 | 1.56 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.88 | 1.30 |
| Shots | 12.5 | 15.6 |
| On target | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 53 |
Form
- 30.10Mainz 054:1
- 27.10Darmstadt0:2
- 24.10away · RB Leipzig0:4
- 17.10Augsburg4:3
- 10.10away · Union Berlin0:1
- 31.10away · Augsburg2:1
- 28.10Wolfsburg3:2
- 25.10Bayern München1:3
- 22.10away · Monaco0:3
- 18.10away · Bayer Leverkusen1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 3, Champions League | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 4, Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | +11 | 15 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- Bayer LeverkusenPaderbornpreliminary6820111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmundpreliminary1622612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- Eintracht FrankfurtHoffenheimpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- Union BerlinRB Leipzigpreliminary1624602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Schalke 04VfB Stuttgartpreliminary2127522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →