Bundesliga, round 10 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Schalke 04 — VfB Stuttgart
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings VfB Stuttgart are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- VfB Stuttgart are 107 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Schalke 04 — No. 17, 6 pts; VfB Stuttgart — No. 11, 9 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Schalke 04: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Schalke 04 1 win, VfB Stuttgart 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Schalke 04 — VfB Stuttgart What is xG? | 1.2–1.9 | |
| Schalke 04 not to lose | 48% | |
| VfB Stuttgart not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Schalke 04
- Schalke 04 goals
- VfB Stuttgart goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Schalke 04 | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.24 | 2.01 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.70 | 1.54 |
| Shots | 11.0 | 16.6 |
| On target | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 6.3 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 44 | 56 |
Form
- 31.10RB Leipzig0:2
- 28.10away · Dynamo Dresden0:2
- 24.10away · 1. FC Köln0:0
- 17.10Mainz 050:1
- 11.10away · Freiburg1:2
- 03.11away · Galatasaray0:2
- 31.10away · Bayer Leverkusen4:2
- 28.10away · Paderborn1:0
- 23.10Borussia Mönchengladbach2:3
- 20.10Atlético Madrid1:1
Head to head
- 25.02.2023Schalke 04 — VfB Stuttgart2:1
- 03.09.2022VfB Stuttgart — Schalke 041:1
- 27.02.2021VfB Stuttgart — Schalke 045:1
- 30.10.2020Schalke 04 — VfB Stuttgart1:1
- 18.05.2019Schalke 04 — VfB Stuttgart0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | -12 | 7 |
| 17, Relegation | Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1 | -11 | 4 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- Bayer LeverkusenPaderbornpreliminary6820111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmundpreliminary1622612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- Eintracht FrankfurtHoffenheimpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- ElversbergFreiburgpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Union BerlinRB Leipzigpreliminary1624602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →