Bundesliga, round 10 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Union Berlin — RB Leipzig
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
RB Leipzig are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings RB Leipzig are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- RB Leipzig are 98 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Union Berlin — No. 16, 7 pts; RB Leipzig — No. 4, 15 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Union Berlin: winless in 4; RB Leipzig: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Union Berlin 1 win, RB Leipzig 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Union Berlin — RB Leipzig What is xG? | 1.2–2.0 | |
| Union Berlin not to lose | 40% | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 84% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Union Berlin
- Union Berlin goals
- RB Leipzig goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Union Berlin | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.22 | 2.08 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.91 | 1.84 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 14.9 |
| On target | 4.4 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 4.0 | 4.9 |
| Cards | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 42 | 51 |
Form
- 01.111. FC Köln1:1
- 27.10away · 1. FC Köln0:5
- 24.10away · Augsburg1:1
- 17.10Borussia Dortmund0:0
- 10.10Elversberg1:0
- 31.10away · Schalke 042:0
- 27.10away · RW Essen2:1
- 24.10Elversberg4:0
- 21.10away · Real Madrid1:4
- 17.10away · Bayern München1:6
Head to head
- 24.04.2026RB Leipzig — Union Berlin3:1
- 12.12.2025Union Berlin — RB Leipzig3:1
- 01.02.2025Union Berlin — RB Leipzig0:0
- 14.09.2024RB Leipzig — Union Berlin0:0
- 04.02.2024RB Leipzig — Union Berlin2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 4, Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | +11 | 15 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3 | -12 | 9 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | -12 | 7 |
| 17, Relegation | Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- Bayer LeverkusenPaderbornpreliminary6820111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmundpreliminary1622612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- Eintracht FrankfurtHoffenheimpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- ElversbergFreiburgpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Schalke 04VfB Stuttgartpreliminary2127522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →