EFL Championship, round 14 · Tuesday, 3 November, 23:00 MSK

Birmingham City — Millwall

Model prediction for 3 November

Birmingham City46%

Draw28%

Millwall26%

Model estimate at 08:05 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Birmingham City are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings Birmingham City are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Birmingham City — No. 4, 17 pts; Millwall — No. 11, 14 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Birmingham City: unbeaten in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Birmingham City 2 wins, Millwall 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Birmingham City — Millwall What is xG?		1.6–1.1
Birmingham City not to lose		74%
Millwall not to lose		54%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Birmingham City
Birmingham City goals
Millwall goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Birmingham City

13.10Preston North End4:0
10.10away · West Bromwich Albion1:0
19.09Middlesbrough2:2
12.09away · Derby County2:1
09.09away · Norwich City1:2

Millwall

13.10Swansea City0:1
10.10away · Preston North End1:0
19.09West Ham United2:2
15.09away · Middlesbrough2:2
12.09away · Blackburn Rovers1:3

Head to head

25.02.2026Millwall — Birmingham City3:0
04.11.2025Birmingham City — Millwall4:0
09.03.2024Millwall — Birmingham City1:0
02.09.2023Birmingham City — Millwall1:1
18.04.2023Millwall — Birmingham City0:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Promotion play-offs	Southampton	9	5	2	2	20–10	+10	17
4, Promotion play-offs	Birmingham City	10	4	5	1	17–11	+6	17
5, Promotion play-offs	West Bromwich Albion	10	5	2	3	12–10	+2	17
10	Wolverhampton Wanderers	9	4	2	3	16–14	+2	14
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	16–16	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	12–14	-2	14

Season 2026/27

Full table

Championship on the same day

22:45
Blackburn RoversStoke Citypreliminary
502722
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:45
Derby CountyNorwich Citypreliminary
382934
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
PortsmouthSwansea Citypreliminary
382934
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
22:45
Preston North EndSheffield Unitedpreliminary
322840
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
22:45
Queens Park RangersBurnleypreliminary
382933
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
22:45
WatfordLincoln Citypreliminary
333037
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
22:45
Charlton AthleticBolton Wandererspreliminary
372934
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
23:00
West Bromwich AlbionSouthamptonpreliminary
342937
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →