Segunda Division, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, 23:00 (UTC+3)

Burgos CF — Albacete

Model prediction for 22 November

Burgos CF44%

Draw30%

Albacete26%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Burgos CF are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings Burgos CF are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Burgos CF are 232 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Burgos CF — No. 8, 21 pts; Albacete — No. 21, 7 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
Burgos CF: unbeaten in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Burgos CF 3 wins, Albacete 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Burgos CF — Albacete What is xG?		1.4–1.0
Burgos CF not to lose		74%
Albacete not to lose		56%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Burgos CF
Burgos CF goals
Albacete goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Burgos CF	Albacete
Goals scored per match	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.9
xG per match	1.36	1.01
Opponents’ xG	1.24	1.64
Shots	11.6	11.8
On target	4.1	3.3
Corners	4.0	5.8
Cards	2.7	2.4
Possession, %	47	45

Averages per match: Burgos CF — the last 10, Albacete — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Burgos CF

01.11Castellón1:1
29.10away · CD Laredo4:2
26.10away · FC Andorra3:2
18.10Sabadell1:0
12.10Granada0:1

Albacete

31.10Sabadell2:1
25.10Eldense2:0
17.10away · Sporting Gijón1:2
12.10away · Real Valladolid0:5
03.10Eibar1:3

Head to head

04.04.2026Albacete — Burgos CF2:3
08.12.2025Burgos CF — Albacete0:1
10.03.2025Burgos CF — Albacete1:0
21.10.2024Albacete — Burgos CF2:0
28.01.2024Burgos CF — Albacete2:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22–11	+11	21
8	Burgos CF	12	6	3	3	17–13	+4	21
9	Real Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17–15	+2	18
20, Relegation	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15–20	-5	10
21, Relegation	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10–23	-13	7
22, Relegation	AD Ceuta FC	12	1	2	9	10–27	-17	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
CórdobaReal Oviedopreliminary
502624
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
18:15
Sporting GijónLas Palmaspreliminary
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
20:30
Celta FortunaReal Valladolidpreliminary
272845
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
20:30
GironaEibarpreliminary
522721
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →