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Segunda Division, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Celta Fortuna — Real Valladolid

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Model prediction for 22 November

Celta Fortuna27%
Draw28%
Real Valladolid45%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Real Valladolid are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Real Valladolid are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Real Valladolid higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • League table: Celta Fortuna — No. 16, 13 pts; Real Valladolid — No. 13, 15 pts. A gap of 2 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Celta Fortuna — Real Valladolid What is xG?1.3–1.6
Celta Fortuna not to lose55%
Real Valladolid not to lose73%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatCelta FortunaReal Valladolid
Goals scored per match1.42.0
Goals conceded per match2.11.6
xG per match1.321.85
Opponents’ xG1.531.33
Shots12.813.9
On target4.96.0
Corners3.75.1
Cards2.83.1
Possession, %5149

Averages per match: Celta Fortuna — the last 10, Real Valladolid — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Celta Fortuna

  • 31.10Córdoba2:2
  • 24.10away · Girona1:5
  • 19.10Tenerife1:1
  • 10.10Real Sociedad B4:1
  • 04.10away · Sporting Gijón2:3

Real Valladolid

  • 02.11Leganés4:3
  • 29.10away · CD Covadonga1:0
  • 23.10away · Granada1:2
  • 18.10Eldense2:3
  • 12.10Albacete5:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
12Córdoba1251619–22-316
13Real Valladolid1243520–19+115
14Tenerife1135313–15-214
15Eldense1242613–17-414
16Celta Fortuna1234518–23-513
17Leganés1233610–20-1012

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

  • CórdobaReal Oviedopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • Sporting GijónLas Palmaspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • GironaEibarpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
  • Burgos CFAlbacetepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →