Segunda Division, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, 20:30 (UTC+3)

Girona — Eibar

Model prediction for 22 November

Girona52%

Draw27%

Eibar21%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Girona are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

By the strength ratings Girona are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Girona are 87 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Girona — No. 7, 21 pts; Eibar — No. 3, 23 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Eibar: winless in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Girona 1 win, Eibar 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Girona — Eibar What is xG?		1.6–1.0
Girona not to lose		79%
Eibar not to lose		48%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		54%
Both teams to score: no		46%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Girona
Girona goals
Eibar goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Girona	Eibar
Goals scored per match	2.0	1.9
Goals conceded per match	0.8	1.1
xG per match	1.44	1.48
Opponents’ xG	1.25	1.47
Shots	13.6	12.7
On target	5.0	5.2
Corners	3.3	2.9
Cards	2.3	2.3
Possession, %	48	43

Averages per match: Girona — the last 10, Eibar — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Girona

31.10away · Real Sociedad B0:1
27.10away · CD Cuarte2:0
24.10Celta Fortuna5:1
18.10FC Andorra2:0
12.10away · Tenerife1:1

Eibar

31.10Almería1:1
24.10away · Córdoba0:2
17.10Mallorca1:1
12.10away · Real Oviedo1:3
03.10away · Albacete3:1

Head to head

05.06.2022Eibar — Girona0:2
02.06.2022Girona — Eibar0:1
19.02.2022Girona — Eibar0:1
29.11.2021Eibar — Girona4:2
03.02.2019Eibar — Girona3:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Promotion	Almería	12	8	2	2	23–10	+13	26
3, Promotion play-offs	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21–14	+7	23
4, Promotion play-offs	Granada	12	7	2	3	20–14	+6	23
6, Promotion play-offs	Sporting Gijón	12	7	1	4	13–13	0	22
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22–11	+11	21
8	Burgos CF	12	6	3	3	17–13	+4	21

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

16:00
CórdobaReal Oviedopreliminary
502624
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
18:15
Sporting GijónLas Palmaspreliminary
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
20:30
Celta FortunaReal Valladolidpreliminary
272845
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
23:00
Burgos CFAlbacetepreliminary
443026
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →