Segunda Division, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, 16:00 (UTC+3)

Córdoba — Real Oviedo

Model prediction for 22 November

Córdoba50%

Draw26%

Real Oviedo24%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Córdoba are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings Córdoba are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Córdoba higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Córdoba — No. 12, 16 pts; Real Oviedo — No. 9, 18 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Córdoba 1 win, Real Oviedo 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Córdoba — Real Oviedo What is xG?		1.8–1.2
Córdoba not to lose		76%
Real Oviedo not to lose		50%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		57%
Total under 2.5		43%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Córdoba
Córdoba goals
Real Oviedo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Córdoba	Real Oviedo
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.7
Goals conceded per match	1.8	1.4
xG per match	1.60	1.35
Opponents’ xG	1.89	1.66
Shots	16.1	15.7
On target	5.1	5.6
Corners	6.5	5.7
Cards	3.5	3.3
Possession, %	57	48

Averages per match: Córdoba — the last 10, Real Oviedo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Córdoba

31.10away · Celta Fortuna2:2
27.10away · CD Atlético Paso1:3
24.10Eibar2:0
16.10away · Leganés1:0
10.10away · Eldense1:2

Real Oviedo

02.11Las Palmas2:3
29.10away · Numancia3:3
24.10away · Almería2:2
18.10away · AD Ceuta FC2:1
12.10Eibar3:1

Head to head

20.04.2025Córdoba — Real Oviedo0:0
21.12.2024Real Oviedo — Córdoba2:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8	Burgos CF	12	6	3	3	17–13	+4	21
9	Real Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17–15	+2	18
10	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12–11	+1	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17–21	-4	17
12	Córdoba	12	5	1	6	19–22	-3	16
13	Real Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20–19	+1	15

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

18:15
Sporting GijónLas Palmaspreliminary
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
20:30
Celta FortunaReal Valladolidpreliminary
272845
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
20:30
GironaEibarpreliminary
522721
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
23:00
Burgos CFAlbacetepreliminary
443026
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →