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Segunda Division, round 13 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)

Burgos CF — Celta Fortuna

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Model prediction for 7 November

Burgos CF54%
Draw27%
Celta Fortuna19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Burgos CF are clear favourites: 54% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Burgos CF are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Burgos CF are 210 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Burgos CF — No. 8, 21 pts; Celta Fortuna — No. 16, 13 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Burgos CF: unbeaten in 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Burgos CF — Celta Fortuna What is xG?1.6–0.9
Burgos CF not to lose81%
Celta Fortuna not to lose46%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Burgos CF
  • Burgos CF goals
  • Celta Fortuna goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatBurgos CFCelta Fortuna
Goals scored per match1.41.4
Goals conceded per match1.02.1
xG per match1.361.32
Opponents’ xG1.241.53
Shots11.612.8
On target4.14.9
Corners4.03.7
Cards2.72.8
Possession, %4751

Averages per match: Burgos CF — the last 10, Celta Fortuna — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Burgos CF

  • 01.11Castellón1:1
  • 29.10away · CD Laredo4:2
  • 26.10away · FC Andorra3:2
  • 18.10Sabadell1:0
  • 12.10Granada0:1

Celta Fortuna

  • 31.10Córdoba2:2
  • 24.10away · Girona1:5
  • 19.10Tenerife1:1
  • 10.10Real Sociedad B4:1
  • 04.10away · Sporting Gijón2:3

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7Girona1263322–11+1121
8Burgos CF1263317–13+421
9Real Oviedo1253417–15+218
15Eldense1242613–17-414
16Celta Fortuna1234518–23-513
17Leganés1233610–20-1012

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

  • CádizReal Oviedo
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • CórdobaAD Ceuta FC
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • LeganésAlbacete
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • GranadaTenerife
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →