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Copa del Rey, round 1 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

CD Badajoz — Tenerife

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Model prediction for 4 November

CD Badajoz20%
Draw23%
Tenerife57%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Tenerife are clear favourites: 57% against 20% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Tenerife are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Tenerife are 158 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Tenerife: winless in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CD Badajoz — Tenerife What is xG?1.0–1.9
CD Badajoz not to lose43%
Tenerife not to lose80%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap CD Badajoz
  • CD Badajoz goals
  • Tenerife goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

CD Badajoz

  • 30.11Alcoyano0:3
  • 17.12away · Navalcarnero0:1
  • 29.01Granada2:3
  • 23.01Eibar3:1
  • 11.01Las Palmas2:1

Tenerife

  • 25.10away · Sabadell1:1
  • 19.10away · Celta Fortuna1:1
  • 12.10Girona1:1
  • 05.10away · Córdoba2:3
  • 26.09Cádiz1:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Copa del Rey on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →