UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK

Celtic — Celta Vigo

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Model prediction for 22 October

Celtic63%
Draw21%
Celta Vigo16%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Celtic are clear favourites: 63% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Celtic are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Celtic — Celta Vigo What is xG?2.1–0.9
Celtic not to lose84%
Celta Vigo not to lose37%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.558%
Total under 2.542%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Celtic
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  • Celta Vigo goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Celtic

  • 11.10away · Motherwell2:0
  • 20.09Rangers0:1
  • 17.09Ferencváros1:3
  • 09.09away · St. Johnstone1:0
  • 05.09away · St. Mirren2:1

Celta Vigo

  • 11.10away · Elche0:0
  • 19.09Racing Santander5:0
  • 16.09away · Omonia Nicosia0:1
  • 13.09Málaga1:1
  • 07.09away · Getafe1:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
26Levski Sofia10010–1-10
27Celta Vigo10010–1-10
28Celtic10011–3-20
29Milan10010–2-20

Season 2026/27

Full table

Europa League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →