Scottish Premiership, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Celtic — St. Mirren
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Celtic are clear favourites: 84% against 5% for the opponent, draw 11%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Celtic are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
- Celtic are 399 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Celtic — No. 1, 28 pts; St. Mirren — No. 8, 14 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Celtic 4 wins, St. Mirren 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Celtic — St. Mirren What is xG? | 2.7–0.7 | |
| Celtic not to lose | 95% | |
| St. Mirren not to lose | 16% | |
| No draw | 89% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Celtic
- Celtic goals
- St. Mirren goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Celtic | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 1.78 | 1.30 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.28 | 2.09 |
| Shots | 16.8 | 11.8 |
| On target | 7.1 | 3.5 |
| Corners | 8.6 | 3.6 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 3.0 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 50 |
Form
- 01.11away · Falkirk0:2
- 28.10Dundee United2:2
- 25.10away · Hibernian2:1
- 22.10Celta Vigo1:2
- 18.10Heart of Midlothian7:1
- 31.10away · Motherwell0:1
- 28.10Hibernian1:1
- 24.10Dundee FC2:1
- 17.10away · Aberdeen1:3
- 10.10away · Heart of Midlothian0:5
Head to head
- 05.09.2026St. Mirren — Celtic1:2
- 11.04.2026Celtic — St. Mirren1:0
- 22.11.2025St. Mirren — Celtic0:1
- 03.08.2025Celtic — St. Mirren1:0
- 17.05.2025Celtic — St. Mirren1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Celtic | 12 | 9 | +17 | 28 |
| 2, Championship round | Rangers | 11 | 7 | +10 | 24 |
| 7, Relegation round | St. Johnstone | 12 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 8, Relegation round | St. Mirren | 12 | 4 | -8 | 14 |
| 9, Relegation round | Motherwell | 12 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- FalkirkSt. Johnstonepreliminary5425211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- HibernianDundee Unitedpreliminary5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KilmarnockAberdeenpreliminary3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Dundee FCHeart of Midlothianpreliminary2226512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- MotherwellRangerspreliminary1724592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →