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Scottish Premiership, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Dundee FC — Heart of Midlothian

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Model prediction for 21 November

Dundee FC22%
Draw26%
Heart of Midlothian51%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Heart of Midlothian are clear favourites: 51% against 22% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Heart of Midlothian are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Heart of Midlothian are 75 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Dundee FC — No. 5, 17 pts; Heart of Midlothian — No. 3, 20 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Dundee FC 1 win, Heart of Midlothian 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dundee FC — Heart of Midlothian What is xG?1.2–1.8
Dundee FC not to lose49%
Heart of Midlothian not to lose78%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.558%
Total under 2.542%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Dundee FC
  • Dundee FC goals
  • Heart of Midlothian goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatDundee FCHeart of Midlothian
Goals scored per match1.71.8
Goals conceded per match1.21.7
xG per match1.501.63
Opponents’ xG1.571.48
Shots13.216.4
On target4.84.9
Corners5.25.7
Cards1.52.3
Possession, %4152

Averages per match: Dundee FC — the last 10, Heart of Midlothian — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Dundee FC

  • 28.10Kilmarnock3:1
  • 24.10away · St. Mirren1:2
  • 17.10Rangers2:2
  • 10.10away · Falkirk2:1
  • 19.09Motherwell2:1

Heart of Midlothian

  • 28.10Rangers2:2
  • 25.10away · Motherwell2:0
  • 22.10away · Trabzonspor0:2
  • 18.10away · Celtic1:7
  • 15.10Nordsjælland1:1

Head to head

  • 06.09.2026Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC2:1
  • 21.03.2026Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC1:0
  • 11.01.2026Dundee FC — Heart of Midlothian0:1
  • 01.11.2025Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC4:0
  • 26.04.2025Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC0:1

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Championship roundRangers1173119–9+1024
3, Championship roundHeart of Midlothian1162324–17+720
4, Championship roundFalkirk1253415–12+318
5, Championship roundDundee FC1152417–13+417
6, Championship roundDundee United1144316–16016

Season 2026/27

Full table

Scottish Premiership on the same day

  • CelticSt. Mirrenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
  • FalkirkSt. Johnstonepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • HibernianDundee Unitedpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • KilmarnockAberdeenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • MotherwellRangerspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →