Scottish Premiership, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Falkirk — St. Johnstone

Model prediction for 21 November

Falkirk54%

Draw25%

St. Johnstone21%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Falkirk are clear favourites: 54% against 21% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings Falkirk are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Falkirk are 204 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Falkirk — No. 4, 18 pts; St. Johnstone — No. 7, 14 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
Falkirk: 4 wins in a row; St. Johnstone: winless in 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Falkirk — St. Johnstone What is xG?		1.8–1.1
Falkirk not to lose		79%
St. Johnstone not to lose		46%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Falkirk
Falkirk goals
St. Johnstone goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Falkirk	St. Johnstone
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.5
xG per match	1.29	1.15
Opponents’ xG	1.94	2.07
Shots	12.0	9.6
On target	4.2	3.3
Corners	4.3	2.8
Cards	2.0	1.6
Possession, %	45	45

Averages per match: Falkirk — the last 10, St. Johnstone — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Falkirk

01.11Celtic2:0
28.10away · Aberdeen1:0
24.10Kilmarnock3:0
17.10away · Hibernian2:1
10.10Dundee FC1:2

St. Johnstone

31.10away · Kilmarnock2:2
28.10Motherwell2:2
24.10away · Rangers0:4
17.10Dundee United1:1
11.10away · Aberdeen1:0

Head to head

19.09.2026St. Johnstone — Falkirk1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Championship round	Heart of Midlothian	11	6	2	3	24–17	+7	20
4, Championship round	Falkirk	12	5	3	4	15–12	+3	18
5, Championship round	Dundee FC	11	5	2	4	17–13	+4	17
6, Championship round	Dundee United	11	4	4	3	16–16	0	16
7, Relegation round	St. Johnstone	12	3	5	4	15–19	-4	14
8, Relegation round	St. Mirren	12	4	2	6	12–20	-8	14

Season 2026/27

Full table

Scottish Premiership on the same day

18:00
CelticSt. Mirrenpreliminary
84115
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
18:00
HibernianDundee Unitedpreliminary
502525
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
18:00
KilmarnockAberdeenpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
20:45
Dundee FCHeart of Midlothianpreliminary
222651
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
23:00
MotherwellRangerspreliminary
172459
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →