Scottish Premiership, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Kilmarnock — Aberdeen

Model prediction for 21 November

Kilmarnock38%

Draw27%

Aberdeen35%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Kilmarnock 38%, Aberdeen 35%, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings Kilmarnock are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Kilmarnock are 62 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Kilmarnock — No. 11, 9 pts; Aberdeen — No. 10, 11 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Kilmarnock 1 win, Aberdeen 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kilmarnock — Aberdeen What is xG?		1.5–1.4
Kilmarnock not to lose		65%
Aberdeen not to lose		62%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock goals
Aberdeen goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen
Goals scored per match	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.9	1.3
xG per match	1.52	1.12
Opponents’ xG	1.76	1.46
Shots	12.8	13.3
On target	3.7	3.5
Corners	5.6	6.0
Cards	2.1	2.4
Possession, %	47	46

Averages per match: Kilmarnock — the last 10, Aberdeen — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kilmarnock

31.10St. Johnstone2:2
28.10away · Dundee FC1:3
24.10away · Falkirk0:3
17.10Motherwell3:2
10.10away · Rangers1:3

Aberdeen

28.10Falkirk0:1
24.10away · Dundee United2:3
17.10St. Mirren3:1
11.10St. Johnstone0:1
19.09away · Hibernian1:1

Head to head

05.09.2026Aberdeen — Kilmarnock0:0
25.04.2026Aberdeen — Kilmarnock1:0
31.01.2026Kilmarnock — Aberdeen3:0
14.12.2025Aberdeen — Kilmarnock2:1
29.10.2025Kilmarnock — Aberdeen0:1

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9, Relegation round	Motherwell	12	3	3	6	14–20	-6	12
10, Relegation round	Aberdeen	11	3	2	6	12–14	-2	11
11, Relegation round	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	13–28	-15	9
12, Relegation round	Hibernian	11	2	2	7	11–17	-6	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Scottish Premiership on the same day

18:00
CelticSt. Mirrenpreliminary
84115
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
18:00
FalkirkSt. Johnstonepreliminary
542521
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
18:00
HibernianDundee Unitedpreliminary
502525
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
20:45
Dundee FCHeart of Midlothianpreliminary
222651
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
23:00
MotherwellRangerspreliminary
172459
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →