Scottish Premiership, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, 23:00 (UTC+3)

Motherwell — Rangers

Model prediction for 21 November

Motherwell17%

Draw24%

Rangers59%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rangers are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 24%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings Rangers are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Rangers are 129 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Motherwell — No. 9, 12 pts; Rangers — No. 2, 24 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
Rangers: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Motherwell 1 win, Rangers 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Motherwell — Rangers What is xG?		1.1–1.9
Motherwell not to lose		41%
Rangers not to lose		83%
No draw		76%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Motherwell
Motherwell goals
Rangers goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Motherwell	Rangers
Goals scored per match	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded per match	1.9	0.8
xG per match	1.60	2.44
Opponents’ xG	1.67	1.06
Shots	15.2	19.6
On target	5.2	6.8
Corners	6.0	7.1
Cards	1.6	1.7
Possession, %	55	56

Averages per match: Motherwell — the last 10, Rangers — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Motherwell

31.10St. Mirren1:0
28.10away · St. Johnstone2:2
25.10Heart of Midlothian0:2
17.10away · Kilmarnock2:3
11.10Celtic0:2

Rangers

28.10away · Heart of Midlothian2:2
24.10St. Johnstone4:0
17.10away · Dundee FC2:2
10.10Kilmarnock3:1
20.09away · Celtic1:0

Head to head

05.09.2026Rangers — Motherwell1:0
26.04.2026Rangers — Motherwell2:3
11.02.2026Motherwell — Rangers1:1
27.12.2025Rangers — Motherwell1:0
02.08.2025Motherwell — Rangers1:1

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	Celtic	12	9	1	2	27–10	+17	28
2, Championship round	Rangers	11	7	3	1	19–9	+10	24
3, Championship round	Heart of Midlothian	11	6	2	3	24–17	+7	20
8, Relegation round	St. Mirren	12	4	2	6	12–20	-8	14
9, Relegation round	Motherwell	12	3	3	6	14–20	-6	12
10, Relegation round	Aberdeen	11	3	2	6	12–14	-2	11

Season 2026/27

Full table

Scottish Premiership on the same day

18:00
CelticSt. Mirrenpreliminary
84115
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
18:00
FalkirkSt. Johnstonepreliminary
542521
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
18:00
HibernianDundee Unitedpreliminary
502525
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
18:00
KilmarnockAberdeenpreliminary
382735
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
20:45
Dundee FCHeart of Midlothianpreliminary
222651
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →