Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)
Cerro Largo — Boston River
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2:0Missed
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Cerro Largo 35%, Boston River 35%, draw 31%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Cerro Largo: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Cerro Largo 1 win, Boston River 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cerro Largo — Boston River What is xG? | 1.1–1.1 | |
| Cerro Largo not to lose | 65% | |
| Boston River not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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- Cerro Largo goals
- Boston River goals
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Match events
- 41′Axel Prado · Cerro Largo
- 60′Agustín Amado · Boston River
- 68′Andrés Córdoba · Cerro Largo1:0
- 80′Leonardo Suárez · Boston River
- 82′Alexis Piegas · Cerro Largo2:0
- 83′Juan Acosta · Boston River
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Andrés Córdoba ↔ Gustavo Viera · Cerro Largo
- 46′Martín Gianoli ↔ Axel Prado · Cerro Largo
- 61′Leonardo Suárez ↔ Facundo Muñoa · Boston River
- 72′Diego Daguerre ↔ Axel Pandiani · Cerro Largo
- 74′Facundo Saravia ↔ Fredy Martínez · Boston River
- 75′Gastón Ramírez ↔ Agustín Amado · Boston River
- 75′Nicolás Siri ↔ Lautaro Vázquez · Boston River
- 85′Felipe Avenatti ↔ Agustín Aguirre · Boston River
- 86′Nicolás Bertocchi ↔ Sebastián Assís · Cerro Largo
- 93′Borys Barone ↔ Elias de Leon · Cerro Largo
Lineups
Cerro Largo
- GKPedro González
- DFAxel Prado46′
- DFAlexander Hernández
- DFAlexis Piegas
- DFSantiago Franca
- MFSebastián Assís86′
- MFMario García
- MFSantiago Marcel
- MFAxel Pandiani72′
- FWGustavo Viera46′
- FWElias de Leon
Came on (4)
- DFMartín Gianoli44′
- FWAndrés Córdoba44′
- MFNicolás Bertocchi4′
- FWDiego Daguerre18′
Boston River
- GKBruno Antúnez
- DFFredy Martínez74′
- DFJuan Acosta
- DFAgustín Aguirre85′
- DFMartín González
- MFRodrigo Saravia
- MFFacundo Muñoa61′
- MFAgustín Amado75′
- MFLautaro Vázquez75′
- FWLeandro Suhr
- FWFrancisco Bonfiglio
Came on (5)
- MFGastón Ramírez15′
- FWLeonardo Suárez29′
- FWFelipe Avenatti5′
- FWNicolás Siri15′
- DFFacundo Saravia16′
Form
- 17.10away · Cerro1:1
- 11.10Albion0:1
- 04.10away · Danubio1:2
- 26.09Nacional (URU)0:2
- 20.09away · Deportivo Maldonado0:2
- 17.10Defensor Sporting1:0
- 10.10away · Montevideo Wanderers3:1
- 04.10Juventud de las Piedras0:0
- 27.09away · Club Atletico Peñarol1:2
- 19.09Club Atlético Progreso1:2
Head to head
- 23.05.2026Cerro Largo — Boston River3:0
- 20.04.2026Boston River — Cerro Largo1:0
- 11.10.2025Cerro Largo — Boston River2:2
- 13.04.2025Boston River — Cerro Largo1:0
- 03.11.2024Boston River — Cerro Largo3:0
Next matches
- RacingCerro Largo31 October · Uruguayan Primera5428181The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- Boston RiverMontevideo City Torque1 November · Uruguayan Primera3127422The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:2, exactly right.2.9
Uruguayan Primera on the same day
- 5427191The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4628261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 6023171The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →