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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)

Deportivo Maldonado — Danubio

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Deportivo Maldonado54%
Draw27%
Danubio19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Maldonado to win (54%), came true.

Deportivo Maldonado are clear favourites: 54% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Deportivo Maldonado are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Deportivo Maldonado are 246 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Maldonado 2 wins, Danubio 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Deportivo Maldonado — Danubio What is xG?1.5–0.8
Deportivo Maldonado not to lose81%
Danubio not to lose46%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.543%
Total under 2.557%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Deportivo Maldonado
  • Deportivo Maldonado goals
  • Danubio goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 18′Bautista Pereira · Danubio0:1
  2. 28′Bautista Pereira · Danubio
  3. 46′Juan Ginzo · Deportivo Maldonado1:1
  4. 60′Santiago Cartagena · Deportivo Maldonado
  5. 63′Juan Millán · Danubio
  6. 93′Renato César · Deportivo Maldonado2:1
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Lautaro Ibanez ↔ Sebastian Tormo · Deportivo Maldonado
  2. 70′Maicol Ferreira ↔ Enzo Cabrera · Danubio
  3. 74′Gonzalo Sosa ↔ Lautaro Ibanez · Deportivo Maldonado
  4. 74′Guillermo López ↔ Juan Ginzo · Deportivo Maldonado
  5. 78′Emiliano Figueroa ↔ Bautista Pereira · Danubio
  6. 82′Joaquín Fernández ↔ Lucas Núñez · Deportivo Maldonado
  7. 86′Ivo Costantino ↔ Bautista Tomatis · Danubio
  8. 86′Cristhian Tizón ↔ Mateo Peralta · Danubio
  9. 86′Sebastián Rodríguez ↔ Juan Millán · Danubio

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Deportivo Maldonado

  1. GKAdriano Freitas
  2. DFJuan Ginzo74′
  3. DFFacundo Tealde
  4. DFNicolás Fuica
  5. DFLucas Núñez82′
  6. DFSebastian Tormo46′
  7. MFSantiago Cartagena
  8. MFSantiago Ramírez
  9. MFMaximiliano Noble
  10. FWChristian Tabó
  11. FWRenato César
Came on (4)
  1. MFGonzalo Sosa16′
  2. FWGuillermo López16′
  3. DFJoaquín Fernández8′
  4. FWLautaro Ibanez28′

Danubio

  1. GKMauro Goicoechea
  2. DFMauro Brasil
  3. DFLeandro Sosa
  4. DFMateo Rinaldi
  5. DFGonzalo Rodríguez
  6. MFMateo Peralta86′
  7. MFJuan Millán86′
  8. MFLuis Femia
  9. FWBautista Tomatis86′
  10. FWEnzo Cabrera70′
  11. FWBautista Pereira78′
Came on (5)
  1. FWCristhian Tizón4′
  2. MFSebastián Rodríguez4′
  3. FWMaicol Ferreira20′
  4. FWIvo Costantino4′
  5. MFEmiliano Figueroa12′

Form

Deportivo Maldonado

  • 20.10away · Nacional (URU)2:3
  • 10.10Liverpool FC1:1
  • 04.10Central Español3:0
  • 27.09away · Montevideo City Torque2:0
  • 20.09Cerro Largo2:0

Danubio

  • 18.10Central Español1:0
  • 09.10away · Montevideo City Torque0:1
  • 04.10Cerro Largo2:1
  • 28.09away · Defensor Sporting0:1
  • 20.09Montevideo Wanderers1:1

Head to head

  • 19.05.2026Deportivo Maldonado — Danubio3:1
  • 19.04.2026Danubio — Deportivo Maldonado1:1
  • 03.12.2024Deportivo Maldonado — Danubio3:1
  • 03.06.2024Danubio — Deportivo Maldonado1:1
  • 07.11.2023Deportivo Maldonado — Danubio1:2

Full record: 7 meetings →

Next matches

  • DanubioNacional (URU)1 November · Uruguayan Primera
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.4
  • AlbionDeportivo Maldonado3 November · Uruguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.7

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →