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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)

Montevideo Wanderers — Club Atlético Progreso

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Model prediction and result

0:1Missed
Montevideo Wanderers46%
Draw28%
Club Atlético Progreso26%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Montevideo Wanderers to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.

Montevideo Wanderers are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Montevideo Wanderers are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Montevideo Wanderers are 143 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Montevideo Wanderers 1 win, Club Atlético Progreso 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Montevideo Wanderers — Club Atlético Progreso What is xG?1.4–1.1
Montevideo Wanderers not to lose74%
Club Atlético Progreso not to lose54%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Montevideo Wanderers
  • Montevideo Wanderers goals
  • Club Atlético Progreso goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 39′Alan García · Montevideo Wanderers
  2. 49′Nicolás Cabral · Montevideo Wanderers
  3. 59′Nahuel López · Club Atlético Progreso0:1
  4. 65′Renzo Bacchia · Club Atlético Progreso
  5. 69′Emiliano Álvarez · Club Atlético Progreso
  6. 81′Leandro Zazpe · Montevideo Wanderers
Substitutions (9)
  1. 6′Lorenzo Couture ↔ Santino Bruschi · Club Atlético Progreso
  2. 25′Alan García ↔ Fabricio Formiliano · Montevideo Wanderers
  3. 46′Matteo Copelotti ↔ Maximiliano Juambeltz · Club Atlético Progreso
  4. 46′Facundo de León ↔ Gian Trasante · Club Atlético Progreso
  5. 46′Leandro Zazpe ↔ Darlin Mencía · Montevideo Wanderers
  6. 46′Renzo Sánchez ↔ Facundo Labandeira · Montevideo Wanderers
  7. 69′Jonathan Urretaviscaya ↔ Alan García · Montevideo Wanderers
  8. 91′Agustin Codagnone ↔ Nahuel López · Club Atlético Progreso
  9. 96′Gastón Silva ↔ Agustín Ocampo · Club Atlético Progreso

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Montevideo Wanderers

  1. GKAgustin Buffa
  2. DFFabricio Formiliano25′
  3. DFNicolás Cabral
  4. DFSantiago Benitez
  5. DFNahuel Furtado
  6. DFDarlin Mencía46′
  7. MFLuciano Cosentino
  8. MFJosé Alberti
  9. MFNicolás Queiroz
  10. FWFacundo Labandeira46′
  11. FWJoaquín Zeballos
Came on (4)
  1. FWRenzo Sánchez44′
  2. DFAlan García44′
  3. FWJonathan Urretaviscaya21′
  4. DFLeandro Zazpe44′

Club Atlético Progreso

  1. GKRenzo Bacchia
  2. DFEmiliano Álvarez
  3. DFAyrton Cougo
  4. DFMauro Martin
  5. DFGian Trasante46′
  6. DFHernan Carroso
  7. MFAgustin Pinheiro
  8. MFSantino Bruschi6′
  9. FWMaximiliano Juambeltz46′
  10. FWAgustín Ocampo
  11. FWNahuel López
Came on (3)
  1. MFLorenzo Couture84′
  2. FWFacundo de León44′
  3. FWMatteo Copelotti44′

Form

Montevideo Wanderers

  • 17.10away · Racing0:3
  • 10.10Boston River1:3
  • 04.10away · Cerro2:0
  • 29.09Albion2:1
  • 20.09away · Danubio1:1

Club Atlético Progreso

  • 17.10Juventud de las Piedras2:0
  • 11.10away · Club Atletico Peñarol1:1
  • 03.10away · Liverpool FC2:3
  • 26.09Racing2:1
  • 19.09away · Boston River2:1

Head to head

  • 12.07.2026Montevideo Wanderers — Club Atlético Progreso2:0
  • 18.04.2026Club Atlético Progreso — Montevideo Wanderers2:1
  • 21.09.2025Club Atlético Progreso — Montevideo Wanderers2:0
  • 28.03.2025Montevideo Wanderers — Club Atlético Progreso1:1
  • 10.11.2024Club Atlético Progreso — Montevideo Wanderers0:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Next matches

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →