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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3)

Montevideo City Torque — Cerro

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Montevideo City Torque60%
Draw23%
Cerro17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Montevideo City Torque to win (60%), came true.

Montevideo City Torque are clear favourites: 60% against 17% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Montevideo City Torque are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Montevideo City Torque are 191 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Montevideo City Torque 3 wins, Cerro 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Montevideo City Torque — Cerro What is xG?1.8–0.8
Montevideo City Torque not to lose83%
Cerro not to lose40%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

91 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Montevideo City Torque
  • Montevideo City Torque goals
  • Cerro goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 6′Franco Pizzichillo · Montevideo City Torque
  2. 8′Agustin Miranda · Cerro0:1
  3. 30′Salomón Rodríguez · missed penalty · Montevideo City Torque
  4. 31′Eduardo Agüero · Montevideo City Torque1:1
  5. 57′Nahuel Da Silva · Montevideo City Torque2:1
  6. 59′Damián Suárez · Cerro
  7. 64′Nahuel Da Silva · Montevideo City Torque3:1
  8. 64′Gianni Rodríguez · Cerro
  9. 89′Kevin Silva · Montevideo City Torque
  10. 90′Franco Torgnascioli · Montevideo City Torque
  11. 92′Juan Guasone · Cerro
  12. 93′Jairo Amaro · Cerro
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Nahuel Da Silva ↔ Franco Pizzichillo · Montevideo City Torque
  2. 55′Bruno Morales ↔ Brahian Alemán · Cerro
  3. 55′Emiliano Rodríguez ↔ Pablo Nongoy · Cerro
  4. 70′Alejandro Severo ↔ Cristian Barros · Cerro
  5. 70′Mauro Villar ↔ Nahuel Arena · Cerro
  6. 71′Ramiro Lecchini ↔ Luka Andrade · Montevideo City Torque
  7. 77′Ezequiel Forclaz ↔ Agustin Miranda · Cerro
  8. 79′Sebastián Cáceres ↔ Esteban Obregón · Montevideo City Torque
  9. 89′Ezequiel Busquets ↔ Salomón Rodríguez · Montevideo City Torque
  10. 89′Brian Gutiérrez ↔ Santiago Zampieri · Montevideo City Torque

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Montevideo City Torque

  1. GKFranco Torgnascioli
  2. DFKevin Silva
  3. DFEduardo Agüero
  4. DFGary Kagelmacher
  5. DFSantiago Zampieri89′
  6. MFPablo Siles
  7. MFFranco Pizzichillo46′
  8. MFDiogo Martinez
  9. FWSalomón Rodríguez89′
  10. FWEsteban Obregón79′
  11. FWLuka Andrade71′
Came on (5)
  1. FWNahuel Da Silva44′
  2. DFBrian Gutiérrez1′
  3. DFEzequiel Busquets1′
  4. MFSebastián Cáceres11′
  5. FWRamiro Lecchini19′

Cerro

  1. GKYonatan Irrazábal
  2. DFDamián Suárez
  3. DFNahuel Arena70′
  4. DFJuan Guasone
  5. DFGianni Rodríguez
  6. DFAlejo Macelli
  7. MFBrahian Alemán55′
  8. MFJairo Amaro
  9. MFPablo Nongoy55′
  10. MFAgustin Miranda77′
  11. FWCristian Barros70′
Came on (5)
  1. MFEzequiel Forclaz13′
  2. FWEmiliano Rodríguez35′
  3. FWAlejandro Severo20′
  4. FWBruno Morales35′
  5. DFMauro Villar20′

Form

Montevideo City Torque

  • 22.10Atlético-MG2:0
  • 18.10away · Albion1:2
  • 15.10away · Atlético-MG0:3
  • 09.10Danubio1:0
  • 06.10away · Nacional (URU)0:2

Cerro

  • 17.10Cerro Largo1:1
  • 10.10away · Defensor Sporting3:2
  • 04.10Montevideo Wanderers0:2
  • 27.09away · Juventud de las Piedras0:0
  • 19.09Club Atletico Peñarol1:2

Head to head

  • 19.04.2026Cerro — Montevideo City Torque1:1
  • 18.10.2025Montevideo City Torque — Cerro1:2
  • 20.04.2025Cerro — Montevideo City Torque1:2
  • 19.11.2023Montevideo City Torque — Cerro1:0
  • 17.04.2023Cerro — Montevideo City Torque0:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Next matches

  • CerroCentral Español31 October · Uruguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
  • Boston RiverMontevideo City Torque1 November · Uruguayan Primera
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:2, exactly right.2.9

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →