Copa del Rey, round 1 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio de La Arboleja
Cieza — Granada
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0:3Came true
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Granada to win (65%), came true.
Granada are clear favourites: 65% against 14% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Granada are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Granada are 219 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Granada: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cieza — Granada What is xG? | 0.9–2.1 | |
| Cieza not to lose | 35% | |
| Granada not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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- Handicap Cieza
- Cieza goals
- Granada goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Match events
- 10′Diego Hormigo · Granada0:1
- 61′Benedikt Gimber · Granada0:2
- 84′Jorge Pascual · Granada0:3
Form
- 23.10Real Valladolid2:1
- 18.10Cádiz2:0
- 12.10away · Burgos CF1:0
- 04.10away · Real Sociedad B3:2
- 26.09FC Andorra2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- EldenseGranada1 November · Segunda Division4429271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
Copa del Rey on the same day
- 1219682The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.1
- 2024562The most likely outcome came true: 21:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 0:2.2.9
- 714802The most likely outcome came true: 20:6Final score 0:6. Model's score: 0:4.3.4
- 2525502The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 815782The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.3
- 1923582The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- San Sebastian de los ReyesCD Coriafinal 1:2 (90 min 1:1)4326311The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →