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Copa del Rey, round 1 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Campo San Francisco

Peña Sport — SD Huesca

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Model prediction and result

1:5Came true
Peña Sport20%
Draw24%
SD Huesca56%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:5: the model's most likely outcome, SD Huesca to win (56%), came true.

SD Huesca are clear favourites: 56% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings SD Huesca are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • SD Huesca are 122 points higher on Elo.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Peña Sport — SD Huesca What is xG?1.0–1.8
Peña Sport not to lose44%
SD Huesca not to lose80%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Peña Sport
  • Peña Sport goals
  • SD Huesca goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 22′Marc Aznar · SD Huesca0:1
  2. 31′Diego Collado · SD Huesca0:2
  3. 55′Mario Garcia · SD Huesca0:3
  4. 66′Joaquín Recalde · Peña Sport1:3
  5. 68′Luismi Redondo · SD Huesca1:4
  6. 89′Ander Gorostidi · SD Huesca1:5

Form

Peña Sport

  • 02.12Málaga0:3
  • 17.12Fuenlabrada0:1

SD Huesca

  • 31.05away · Córdoba1:1
  • 24.05Castellón0:1
  • 18.05away · Leganés0:0
  • 11.05Real Sociedad B1:2
  • 03.05away · Racing Santander2:4

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Copa del Rey on the same day

  • NumanciaReal Oviedo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.1
  • Atletico CalatayudOsasuna
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:6. Model's score: 0:4.3.4
  • Atlético BalearesEldense
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • Coruxo FCZamora
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
  • UB LebrijanaGetafe
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.3
  • PoblenseAD Ceuta FC
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
  • San Sebastian de los ReyesCD Coriafinal 1:2 (90 min 1:1)
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • CiezaGranada
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.3.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →